July Update 2010
The slow down happened as was expected.
The seasonal buyers who hung around looking for deals bugged out at the 100+ degree mark. The traffic at Open Houses is down to a very weak trickle.
There still is no money available to loan on condos. However, the lease market on those continues to be strong. 
Commercial real estate is showing signs of perking up, mostly due to out of the area investors scooping up deals. Apartment rentals continue strong, so the investment market is picking up. 
Buyers who are out there right now are generally making really low offers and lots of sellers are frustrated by that. Not the level of pendings that there was last month. 
 Numbers:
Changes from last year:
                        Scotts                         FH                               REO                           Short Sls
Active             -7%                            -6%                             +23%                          +39%
Pending         -5%                            flat                               -39%                           +35%
Closings        +5%                           -21%                           -38%                           +99%
Days on Mkt -10%                          -22%                           -12%                           -5%
Months inv    -31%                           Flat                             +66%                          -38%
Act.$/SF         -11%                           -15%                           -5%                             -11%
Pend $/SF     -8%                             -8%                            +2%                            -5%
Sls $/SF         +3%                            -19%                           +4%                            -6%
Av SP             +8%                            -3%                             +4%                            -12%
Median SP    +6%                            -21%                         +4%                            -14%
Contract ratio +26%                         +14%                         -52%                           +4%                                                   
*Demand Index 107.5                     100.8
* A demand index of 100 is a balanced market. FH is near balanced, and the months of inventory is improving steadily, but lots of condos. Scottsdale is near balanced and some larger properties are moving.
The contract ratio shows how many offers are averaging per pending. 
Bottom line: Scottsdale is humming along with fewer properties available and those on the market are selling faster and at higher prices. Condos are dragging the numbers down. FH has a ton of seasonal condos and that is pulling their numbers down, but single family residences are doing OK. The movement continues to shift from lender owned to short sales. In fact, Short Sales are selling within 3 % of asking price as the lenders are getting more savvy. 
Keep those referrals rolling in! We expect a slow down for 6 weeks and then we expect shoppers to come out to take advantage of preseason pricing. Money is becoming easier to get and rentals continue strong. If you know anyone who rents seasonally out here, if they have not booked yet, they may have an unpleasant surprise. 
Please visit our new web site www.AlwaysOpenAZ.com. Have a great July.
Marty Lehman & Ellen Blum
 

    
Equal Housing Opportunity