March Update 2010
When I was a child, my mother always warned me not to ever talk about anything good, because the “Evil Eye” would hear about it and take the good away. Somehow, I think that she may have been on to something. It seems like every time that we get some good news, something comes along and messes it up.
I try to be quiet, but I liketo living on the edge, I ran the numbers for Feb. 2010 vs. Feb. 2009. 
Last month’s changes are in parens.
                        Scotts                         FH                               REO                           Short Sls
Active             -26%                          -25%                           -55%                           +32%
Pending         +83%                         +93%                          -19%                           +395%
Closings        +50%                         +22%                          -14%                           +324%
Days on Mkt flat                              +16%                          -47%                           +3%
Months inv    -49%                           -12%                           -49%                           -60%
Act.$/SF         -21%(+13%)              -24%(flt)                     +12%(flt)                    -5%(Flat)
Pend $/SF     -34%                           -65%                          -2%                             -11%
Sls $/SF         -24%                           -28%                           -2%                             -13%
Av SP             -15%(+19%)             12%(+55%)             Flat(-6%)                    -22%(+4%)
Median SP    -32%                           -30%                         -8%                             -23%
Contract ratio +321%                       +320%                        +192%                        +570%                                                           
*Demand Index
86                                96.2
* A demand index of 100 is a balanced market. FH is near balanced, and the months of inventory is improving steadily. Scottsdale is starting to move seasonal and some larger properties are moving.
The contract ratio shows how many offers are averaging per pending. 
You can see from the numbers, the number of active listings on resales and REOs is down but Short Sales is the new hot area. Bank owned properties seemed to be losing their appeal as banks appear to be working with sellers more.  Look at the pricing on resales from last year to present and then look to see what is happening month over month. Common wisdom would say that it appears that we have bottomed out and we are starting back upwards on pricing. If, in fact, the lenders are doing Short sales over foreclosures, the next wave of foreclosures may be averted. The demand index is still trending upwards, but we are not in a balanced market yet. I read an article that said that new housing starts are off so dramatically, that there will be a housing shortage by 2011. Theoretically, that is true, but only if people are working and not living with their parents. One interesting phenomenon  that I have been encountering is the number of people who have jobs, but lost their houses and have no down payment to buy a house, but have good income. They are stepping into rentals, saving the bacon for those who are out of work and can’t pay their mortages. 
The over $600k is still weak, but the availability of jumbo mortgages is waking up that segment a little. It is still very quiet over $1M with the well healed looking for deals on cash purchases. The McMansions are hurting, that is to say, the overbuilt arena of 5000+ sq. ft. homes. Canadians are still opening up their wallets.
The weather out here is still fantastic. Lots of rainfall, but in the mid to high 70s this week. Come visit and what a great time to buy.
 
Keep those referrals rolling in! Thanks and come visit soon.
Marty Lehman & Ellen Blum
 

    
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